‘They are crap and have been crap for ages’: Labour TDs unfazed by poor opinion polls

LAST SUNDAY’S WEEKEND papers were bad news for Simon Harris and Fine Gael, with his party reaching an all-time low in opinion polls, but beyond the headlines, there was also the continuation of a worrying trend for the Labour Party. 

The Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks poll, published on 1 November, showed Labour polling at 3%, putting the party on par with People Before Profit and the Green Party at the bottom of the league. 

Independent Ireland were just ahead at 7%, Aontú at 9%, Independents and others at 10%, and the Social Democrats at 11%. 

Sunday Independent / Ireland Thinks

For Labour, it was a one-percentage-point drop on the previous Ireland Thinks poll carried out in September, and represents the continuation of a poor showing in the polls for the party since the 2024 general election.

Although Labour was once level with the Social Democrats, Holly Cairns’ party has shot significantly ahead in the last two years. 

The Journal caught up with a number of Labour parliamentary party members this week to try and get a sense of the mood in the party at the moment and to see why they felt Labour is stuck where it is in the polls.

Overall, the outlook from TDs was surprisingly positive.

“The mood is actually grand despite the polls – the polls have been bad for so long,” one TD said.

They argued that there is a degree of resilience in the party and noted that they did manage to outperform the polls in the most recent elections.

“I’m not trying to put a spin on it though, they are crap and have been crap for ages,” the TD said.

Speaking about why they think that is the case, TDs unsurprisingly pointed to the Labour Party’s legacy from its last stint in government (and its role in austerity) from 2011-2016.

For many, they see this as the reason they are polling so far behind the Social Democrats, a party that is extremely similar in policy positions and ideology.

“Aontú, Independent Ireland, Social Democrats and Sinn Féin haven’t been in government, that’s a key part of it. There’s still that legacy there of ‘we won’t get another chance until others get a chance first’,” one TD said.

Another TD pointed to a difference in social media strategy as another possible reason why the Social Democrats have been outperforming Labour in the polls.

“Don’t get me wrong, we have an incredible communications team, but as politicians we aren’t all digital natives. Our councillors across the country skew a lot older than SocDems do,” they said.

They added: “Some of it is vibes and some of it is just catching the zeitgeist. As a party at every level, they are just better at social media…

“Sometimes I just think as a party, they are just better at getting their message out than we are, even though we have almost identical policies and positions on everything.”

Another TD argued that the Social Democrats are “quite poisonous” in their attitude to the Labour Party.
“It’s part of their foundational charter: Kill us and absorb our space,” they said.

Shooting down any suggestion of a merger between the two centre-left parties, the TD said: “I think what we need to do is put our arms around ourselves, get as much space as we can for ourselves and focus on our strengths.”

Specifically, the party is trying to take the approach of focusing on bread-and-butter issues and the cost of living in an effort to cut through with voters.

On the leadership question, TDs said there is none.

Dublin Bay South TD Ivana Bacik has been leader of the party since March 2022, taking over from Tipperary North TD Alan Kelly, who held the position for two years.

“We’ve changed the name above the shop a few times now, is it going to make any difference? No.

“Ivana works her tail off…She’s good at bringing people together and that kind of thing,” one TD said.

Another added that Bacik is a “superb” leader of the party.

Party insiders made the point that there is a solid feeling of collegiality among the current batch of Labour parliamentary party members, one that has been fostered by Bacik.

While they may not be in the best place in the polls at the moment, there was a general sense that with over two years to go until the next general election, a lot can change – and Labour are hoping for the better.